| No. 262, February 9, 2023 |
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Austin Dillon Drives Get Bioethanol Chevy to Second-Place Finish in NASCAR Clash at the Coliseum |
Austin Dillon drove the #3 Get Bioethanol Chevy to a second-place finish last weekend at NASCAR's Clash at the Coliseum in Los Angeles (crossing the checkered line only 0.786 seconds behind winner Martin Truex Jr.). The race also kicked off with USC Trojans quarterback and 2022 Heisman Trophy Winner Caleb Williams waving the green Get Bioethanol flag to officially start the race. All told it was a big day for Get Bioethanol, a part of Growth Energy's Get Biofuel consumer campaign. Watch the race highlights here and check out Get Biofuel's latest initiative - the Green American Road Trip with Olympic Gold Medalist Shawn Johnson East and her family - here.
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Last week, domestic ethanol demand was 13.2 BGY, down 0.7% compared to a week ago (we assume 10.18% ethanol penetration in 2023, up from 10.12% in 2022). The EIA-reported gas demand was down 0.7% from last week, at 129.2 BGY. The 4-week average ethanol and gas demand are 12.9 and 126.9 BGY and reflect the holidays, winter storms and end-of-year effects in the recent prior weeks’ data.
Ethanol production was 15.3 BGY last week, down 2.7% versus the week before, and 2.0% less than the 4-week average in 2019. Midwest production was down 3.1% (-8.8 MG) versus a week ago, and average production in the other regions was up 4.3% (+0.6 MG). Capacity utilization of plants online was 88.4% overall, 89.9% in the Midwest, and 66.0% on average, elsewhere, excluding 1,355 MGY of capacity shutdown at 27 ethanol plants for other than maintenance. On an installed capacity basis, utilization was 83.1% overall, 87.9% in the Midwest and 39.9% in the other regions.
Exports were an estimated 27.2 MG last week based on 120 MG of exports forecast for January and 110 MG forecast for February. The EIA reported no ethanol imports last week.
Overall inventory was up 10.5 MG last week. EIA-counted stocks decreased 1.8 MG, and regional changes were: East (+25 MG), Gulf (-32 MG) and West (-9 MG) Coasts and the Midwest (+16 MG). In-transit inventory increased 12.3 MG.
Based on the total inventory of 1,901 MG on February 3rd and the 4-week avg. domestic demand, there were 53.1 days of supply, down 1.0 days versus a week ago. Including the 4-week avg. of net exports, there were 47.9 days of supply, down 0.6 days versus a week ago.
Based on US Census data, 3.0 MG of fuel ethanol were imported in December, with 2.2 MG from Brazil (all to FL and none to CA) and 0.8 MG from Canada. Year-to-date imports have totaled 94.9 MG, +30.2% versus 2021 (72.9 MG). In December, there were no ethanol imports reported for ETBE production for re-export to Japan, and 44.9 MG YTD (-2.6% YoY).
Ethanol exports in December were 86.0 MG, including an estimated 8.7 MG used to make ETBE exported to Japan (assuming 44% of ETBE exports were derived from U.S. corn ethanol). The major export destinations were Canada (49 MG), South Korea (8 MG), Philippines (9 MG) and Mexico (4 MG). There was none to the EU, China, or Brazil. For 2022, exports totaled 1,468 MG, +8.2% vs. 2021. The destinations receiving the most U.S. ethanol exports in 2022 were Canada (503 MG), the Europe (211 MG, including 99 MG to The Netherlands) and South Korea (171 MG) and India (89 MG). The US exported only 59 MG to Brazil the lowest amount since 2013, with high corn prices being a significant factor then and in 2022.
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For more information, please contact Vice President of Market Development Jake Comer. |
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USDA Report on Global Ethanol Demand Highlights Importance of Blending Rates At Home and Abroad DOE Announces $25.5 Million to Improve Biofuels and Bioproducts |
State Updates: CARB Workshop, Illinois Gov. Signs SAF Tax Credit, Nebraska E15 Hearing, SD Pipeline Letter |
Growth Energy at IRFA Summit |
Space Is Limited - Register Now for ELC 2023! |
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USDA Report on Global Ethanol Demand Highlights Importance of Blending Obligations At Home and Abroad |
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) Economic Research Service published a report this week exploring global demand for U.S. ethanol, highlighting the fact that ethanol's future growth will depend heavily on statutory blending requirements—at home and abroad. "EIA [Energy Information Administration] projections... indicate that U.S. consumption of ethanol in motor gasoline and E85 is expected to increase between 196 million gallons (1.4 percent) and 1.4 billion gallons (10.4 percent) above 2021 levels, depending on U.S. economic growth over the decade," reads the report's summary. "The projected increase in ethanol consumption across all scenarios—despite falling gasoline consumption in some scenarios—is due in part to EIA’s assumption that the Renewable Fuel Standard will increase total U.S. consumption of renewable fuels."
Internationally, the report projected stagnation in global demand for gasoline, "leaving changes in blend rates—domestically or abroad—as the main determinant for future changes in fuel ethanol demand." Read the report here. |
DOE Announces $25.5 Million to Improve Biofuels and Bioproducts |
The U.S. Department of Energy announced $25.5 million in funding this week to enable the sustainable use of domestic biomass and waste resources to produce low-carbon biofuels and bioproducts. According to DOE, this funding will "advance the Biden-Harris administration goals of delivering an equitable, clean energy future, and put the United States on a path to achieve net-zero emissions, economy-wide, by 2050." Learn more here.
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For more information, please contact Vice President of Government Affairs John Fuher. |
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State Updates: CARB Workshop, Illinois Gov. Signs SAF Tax Credit, Nebraska E15 Hearing, SD Pipeline Letter |
The California Air Resources Board (CARB) will hold another public workshop on potential changes to its low carbon fuel standard (LCFS). The workshop will be on February 22nd and will have two sessions: a morning session from 9AM -12PM PST and an afternoon session from 12:30-3PM PST. Growth Energy has and will continue to participate in the workshops to discuss the importance of using the best available science for ethanol lifecycle emissions, including the need to lower California’s land use penalty, the approval of E15 in the state, and other important considerations to ensure that biorefineries get appropriate credit for innovations in carbon intensity reduction. Information on the workshop can be found here.
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Late last week, Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker signed a $1.50 per gallon sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) purchase tax credit into law as part of the Invest in Illinois Act. The tax credit becomes effective June 1, 2023, and is currently in place through Jan. 1, 2033. It will apply to SAF sold to or used by an air carrier, but to be eligible for the credit, SAF must achieve a 50 percent lifecycle greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction when compared to petroleum-based jet fuel using either the lifecycle methodology for SAF developed by the International Civil Aviation Organization or the most recent version of Argonne National Laboratory’s GREET model. Learn more here.
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On February 7, Nebraska’s unicameral legislature’s Committee on Agriculture held a hearing on LB 562, an initiative which would implement a statewide E15 standard by 2027. Growth Energy is pleased to support this effort and will continue to work with stakeholders in Nebraska as well as our on-the-ground consultant in Lincoln to support the effort.
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Finally, Growth Energy CEO Emily Skor recently sent a letter to the South Dakota legislature asking lawmakers there to support the Carbon Capture Utilization and Storage (CCUS) projects in the state. "Ultimately, low-carbon biofuels coupled with CCUS will create thousands of high-quality clean energy jobs across the supply chain, in rural America and throughout the country, while helping us meet our climate targets as quickly as possible," Skor said. "We hope that you will support our industry’s ability to thrive and support the state’s vibrant ag economy by carefully considering the unintended consequences of any legislation and allowing important CCUS projects the opportunity to add more value to the great state of South Dakota." Read the full letter here.
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For more information, please contact Senior Vice President of Regulatory Affairs Chris Bliley. |
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Growth Energy at IRFA Summit |
Growth Energy was on-site at the Iowa Renewable Fuels Summit this week. The GE membership team along with VP of Market Development Jake Comer, and SVP of Regulatory Affairs, Chris Bliley held court on the event's trade show floor and engaged with industry leaders and existing members (as well as more than a few prospects). Next month the team will be on-hand at the Ethanol: Emerging Issues Forum in Omaha March 6-7. If you're attending be sure to stop by!
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Register Closes Friday for ELC 2023 |
For more information, please contact Senior Vice President of Development Kelly Manning. |
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The Weekly Rundown is the weekly newsletter for Growth Energy's members. It is published weekly by the communications staff at Growth Energy. For more information, email team@growthenergy.org or visit our website GrowthEnergy.org.
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