Last week, domestic ethanol demand was 13.7 BGY, down 10.8% compared to a week ago. The EIA-reported gas demand was down 10.8% from last week, at 132.5 BGY. The lower gas demand last week appears to be the counterpoint from the prior week when consumers/retailers stocked up in advance of both the long Juneteenth holiday weekend and the potential for supply disruptions/price increases due to Mideast tensions. The 4-week average ethanol and gas demand are 14.6 and 141.0 BGY (-0.1% YoY) and are probably a better indication of current demand than the weekly data snapshot.
Ethanol production was 16.5 BGY last week, down 0.5% versus the week before, and 1.1% less than the 4-week average in 2019. Midwest production was down 0.7% (-2.1 MG) versus a week ago, and average production in the other regions was up 3.4% (+0.6 MG) mainly on the Gulf Coast. Capacity utilization of plants online was 92.3% overall, 93.0% in the Midwest, and 81.6% on average, elsewhere, excluding 1,258 MGY of capacity shutdown at 25 ethanol plants for other than maintenance (details on pg. 31). On an installed capacity basis, utilization was 86.2% overall, 90.5% in the Midwest and 48.1% in the other regions.
Exports were an estimated 37.3 MG last week based on 160 MG forecast for June. The EIA reported no ethanol imports last week.
Overall inventory was up 12.4 MG last week. EIA-counted stocks decreased 12.1 MG, and regional changes were: East (-4 MG), Gulf (-8 MG) and West (+4 MG) Coasts and the Midwest (-4 MG). In-transit inventory levels increased 24.4 MG.
Based on the total inventory of 1,482 MG on June 27th and the 4-week avg. domestic demand, there were 37.1 days of supply, down 0.5 days from a week ago. Including the 4-week avg. of net exports, there were 32.7 days of supply, also down 0.3 days from a week ago.