Editorial note: The below update is based on the most-recent Energy Information Administration (EIA) data and was originally published on December 28, 2023.
Last week, domestic ethanol demand was 14.3 BGY, up 4.7% compared to a week ago. The EIA-reported gas demand was up 4.7% from last week, at 140.5 BGY. Most of the increase was likely due to this being the week leading into the Christmas holiday weekend travel period. The 4-week average ethanol and gas demand are 13.8 and 135.1 BGY (+1.7% YoY).
Ethanol production was 17.0 BGY last week, up 3.4% versus the week before, and 3.5% more than the 4-week average in 2019. Midwest production was up 3.8% (+11.2 MG) versus a week ago, and average production in the other regions was down 3.2% (-0.6 MG). Capacity utilization of plants online was 96.2% overall, 97.2% in the Midwest, and 81.5% on average, elsewhere, excluding 1,197 MGY of capacity shutdown at 25 ethanol plants for other than maintenance. On an installed capacity basis, utilization was 90.1% overall, 94.6% in the Midwest and 48.8% in the other regions.
Exports were an estimated 27.1 MG last week based on 120 MG/mo. of exports forecast for December. The EIA reported no ethanol imports last week.
Overall inventory was up 20.0 MG last week. EIA-counted stocks increased 25.7 MG, and regional changes were: East (+1 MG), Gulf (+13 MG) and West (-0.3 MG) Coasts and the Midwest (+13 MG). In-transit inventory decreased 5.7 MG.
Based on the total inventory of 1,796 MG on December 22nd and the 4-week avg. domestic demand, there were 46.9 days of supply, down 0.7 days versus a week ago. Including the 4-week avg. of net exports, there were 42.5 days of supply, down 0.5 days versus a week ago.
