Last week, domestic ethanol demand was 13.5 BGY, down 5.5% compared to a week ago. The EIA-reported gas demand was down 5.5% from last week, at 130.7 BGY. The 4-week average ethanol and gas demand are 14.0 BGY and 135.5 BGY (-1.2% YoY).
Ethanol production was 16.7 BGY last week, up 1.5% versus the week before, and 6.9% more than the 4-week average in 2019. Midwest production was up 1.9% (+5.6 MG) versus a week ago, and average production in the other regions was down 4.9% (-0.9 MG) on both the East and West Coasts. Capacity utilization of plants online was 93.1% overall, 94.1% in the Midwest, and 78.2% on average, elsewhere, excluding 1,258 MGY of capacity shutdown at 25 ethanol plants for other than maintenance (details on pg. 30). On an installed capacity basis, utilization was 87.0% overall, 91.5% in the Midwest and 46.3% in the other regions.
Exports were an estimated 39.7 MG last week based on 170 MG forecast for November. The EIA reported no ethanol imports last week.
Overall inventory was up 17.8 MG last week. EIA-counted stocks increased 3.7 MG, and regional changes were: East (+8 MG), Gulf (-3 MG) and West (+5 MG) Coasts and the Midwest (-6 MG). In-transit inventory levels increased 14.1 MG.
Based on the total inventory of 1,318 MG on November 14th and the 4-week avg. domestic demand, there were 33.9 days of supply, up 0.1 days from a week ago. Including the 4-week avg. of net exports, there were 29.5 days of supply, up 0.2 days from a week ago.
On November 19th, U.S. Census released the August trade data. Thus far, Census has not published the release date for the overdue September data.