Last week, domestic ethanol demand was 14.8 BGY, up 11.4% compared to a week ago. The EIA-reported gas demand was up 11.4% from last week, at 141.7 BGY. Some of the week-on-week increase was likely due to stockpiling by drivers in response to the Iran war. The 4-week average ethanol and gas demand are 14.0 BGY and 134.2 BGY (+0.8% YoY).
Ethanol production was 17.3 BGY last week, up 2.8% versus the week before, and 10.6% more than the 4-week average in 2019. Midwest production was up 3.3% (+10.0 MG) versus a week ago, and average production in the other regions was down 5.9% (-0.9 MG). Ethanol production capacity utilization of plants online this week was 95.8% overall, 98.0% in the Midwest, and 64.4% on average, elsewhere, excluding 1,258 MGY of capacity shutdown at 25 ethanol plants for other than maintenance. On an installed capacity basis, utilization was 89.6% overall, 95.3% in the Midwest and 38.2% in the other regions.
Exports were an estimated 49.1 MG last week based on 190 MG forecast for February and 220 MG forecast for March. The EIA reported no ethanol imports last week.
Overall inventory was down 5.9 MG last week. EIA-counted stocks decreased 31.8 MG, and regional changes were: East (+20 MG), Gulf (-23 MG) and West (+1 MG) Coasts and the Midwest (-29 MG). In-transit inventory levels increased 25.9 MG.
Based on the total inventory of 1,469 MG on March 6th and the 4-week avg. domestic demand, there were 38.2 days of supply, down 0.8 days from a week ago. Including the 4-week avg. of net exports, the days of supply 32.4 days, down 0.7 days from a week ago.