Last week, domestic ethanol demand was 13.4 BGY, up 4.1% compared to a week ago. The EIA-reported gas demand was up 3.8% from last week, at 130.0 BGY. The 4-week average ethanol and gas demand are 13.6 and 132.5BGY (+1.1% YoY). Note: The percentage change in ethanol demand was higher week-on-week than gasoline demand because for the two days of January 2025 in the weekly data, the assumed ethanol penetration is 10.34%, up from the 10.25% assumed throughout 2024. Thus the weighted average ethanol penetration for last week was 10.28%.
Ethanol production was 16.9 BGY last week, down 0.8% versus the week before, and 7.0% more than the 4-week average in 2019. Midwest production was down 1.1% (-3.5 MG) versus a week ago, and average production in the other regions was up 5.4% (+0.9 MG) mainly in the Gulf Coast region. Capacity utilization of plants online was 93.8% overall, 95.1% in the Midwest, and 76.1% on average, elsewhere, excluding 1,027 MGY of capacity shutdown at 22 ethanol plants for other than maintenance. On an installed capacity basis, utilization was 88.8% overall, 93.4% in the Midwest and 47.5% in the other regions.
Exports were an estimated 41.3 MG last week based on 180 MG forecast for December and 190 MG forecast for January. The EIA reported no ethanol imports last week.
Overall inventory was up 22.5 MG last week. EIA-counted stocks increased 21.4 MG, and regional changes were: East (-1 MG), Gulf (+5 MG) and West (-1 MG) Coasts and the Midwest (+17 MG). In-transit inventory levels increased 1.1 MG.
Based on the total inventory of 1,673 MG on Jan 3rd and the 4-week avg. domestic demand, there were 44.0 days of supply, up 0.9 days versus a week ago. Including the 4-week avg. of net exports, there were 38.0 days of supply, up 0.7 days versus a week ago.
Based on US Census data, ethanol exports in November were 192.5 MG, including an estimated 5.7 MG used to make ETBE exported to Japan (assuming 44% of ETBE exports were derived from U.S. corn ethanol). The major export destinations were Canada (57 MG), India (24 MG), United Kingdom (18 MG), The Netherlands (17 MG), Columbia (13 MG), Mexico (8 MG), and South Korea (7 MG). The total to Europe (EU + UK) was 49 MG. After exports to Brazil in April and May 2024, the first since May 2022, there have been no exports reported to Brazil since. Year-to-date through November, exports have totaled 1,813 MG, 32% more than the same period in 2023, and already eclipsing the record annual exports of 1.7 BG in 2018 that included 500 MG to Brazil and 50 MG to China.
Census data shows 0.8 MG of fuel ethanol were imported in November, all from Canada. Year-to-date, imports have totaled 15.8 MG, 53% less than YTD 2023. In November, there were 15.1 MG of ethanol imports reported for industrial use from Brazil that we understand is for ETBE production and then for re-export to Japan and YTD there have been 79.1 MG for this purpose.