Last week, domestic ethanol demand was 12.6 BGY, down 5.7% compared to a week ago. The EIA-reported gas demand was down 5.7% from last week, at 120.1 BGY. The 4-week average ethanol and gas demand are 13.1 BGY and 126.0 BGY (down 0.6% YoY).
Ethanol production was 17.2 BGY last week, down 6.4% versus the week before, and 8.8% more than the 4-week average in 2019. Midwest production was down 6.4% (-21.5 MG) versus a week ago, and average production in the other regions was down 7.0% (-1.2 MG).
[Note on production: The production reported by the EIA the week before was so high as to be quite suspect. This week’s production volume, while high, is in the believable range taking all factors into account. We would expect that once the monthly production for January is reported by the EIA at the end of March that it is likely to have a more accurate volume for the month and be less than the weekly average production during the month.]
Ethanol production capacity utilization of plants online this week was 95.2% overall, 96.9% in the Midwest, and 71.1% on average, elsewhere, excluding 1,258 MGY of capacity shutdown at 25 ethanol plants for other than maintenance. On an installed capacity basis, utilization was 89.0% overall, 94.2% in the Midwest and 42.2% in the other regions. [Further note on production: These capacity utilization levels are back in the normal range and contrast with the greater than 100% reported last week. While 100% capacity utilization is possible on a short-term basis, in this case of the prior week’s production reported by the EIA, we think it is another indication of there being a problem with the reported Midwest production that week.]
Exports were an estimated 42.9 MG last week based on 190 MG forecast for January. The EIA reported no ethanol imports last week.
Overall inventory was up 41.4 MG last week. EIA-counted stocks were increased 53.2 MG, and regional changes were: East (+21 MG), Gulf (+27 MG) and West (-1 MG) Coasts and the Midwest (+6 MG). In-transit inventory levels decreased 11.8 MG.
Based on the total inventory of 1,492 MG on January 16th and the 4-week avg. domestic demand, there were 39.9 days of supply, up 2.2 days from a week ago. Including the 4-week avg. of net exports, there were 34.2 days of supply, up 1.7 days from a week ago.