Last week, domestic ethanol demand was 13.3 BGY, up 1.8% compared to a week ago. The EIA-reported gas demand was up 1.8% from last week, at 127.2 BGY. The 4-week average ethanol and gas demand are 13.2 BGY and 126.6 BGY (down -0.7% YoY).
Ethanol production was 17.0 BGY last week, up 16.1% versus the week before, and 9.4% more than the 4-week average in 2019. Midwest production was up 16.7% (+44.4 MG) versus a week ago, and average production in the other regions was up 5.6% (+0.9 MG). The increase in production was a response to the large decrease in production the week before due to weather. Ethanol production capacity utilization of plants online this week was 94.5% overall, 95.7% in the Midwest, and 76.5% on average, elsewhere, excluding 1,258 MGY of capacity shutdown at 25 ethanol plants for other than maintenance. On an installed capacity basis, utilization was 88.3% overall, 93.1% in the Midwest and 45.4% in the other regions.
Exports were an estimated 46.2 MG last week based on 190 MG/month forecast for both January and February. The EIA reported no ethanol imports last week.
Overall inventory was up 21.2 MG last week. EIA-counted stocks were increased 4.7 MG, and regional changes were: East (+24 MG), Gulf (-11 MG) and West (-6 MG) Coasts and the Midwest (-2 MG). In-transit inventory levels increased 16.5 MG.
Based on the total inventory of 1,485 MG on February 6th and the 4-week avg. domestic demand, there were 40.7 days of supply, up 0.4 days from a week ago. Including the 4-week avg. of net exports, there were 34.7 days of supply, up 0.2 days from a week ago.