Last week, domestic ethanol demand was 13.5 BGY, down 7.3% compared to a week ago. The EIA-reported gas demand was down 7.3% from last week, at 130.1 BGY. The larger than usual week-on-week decrease was likely the result of there having been additional demand the week before, which led into the 4th of July long holiday weekend, when it is normal for retail outlets to increase supplies from the terminals to reduce the chance of running out of inventory over the long holiday weekend. With additional leftover volume, it meant that the following week (this week), less was taken from the terminals. The 4-week average ethanol and gas demand are 14.3 and 137.9 BGY (-1.6% YoY) and are likely more accurate indications of current demand.
Ethanol production was 16.7 BGY last week, up 0.2% versus the week before, and 1.4% more than the 4-week average in 2019. Midwest production was down 0.2% (-0.6 MG) versus a week ago, and average production in the other regions was up 7.3% (+1.2 MG) mainly on the Gulf Coast. Capacity utilization of plants online was 93.0% overall, 93.9% in the Midwest, and 79.9% on average, elsewhere, excluding 1,258 MGY of capacity shutdown at 25 ethanol plants for other than maintenance. On an installed capacity basis, utilization was 86.9% overall, 91.3% in the Midwest and 47.2% in the other regions.
Exports were an estimated 40.6 MG last week based on 180 MG forecast for July. The EIA reported no ethanol imports last week.
Overall inventory was up 16.9 MG last week. EIA-counted stocks decreased 13.6 MG, and regional changes were: East (-4 MG), Gulf (-10 MG) and West (-7 MG) Coasts and the Midwest (+8 MG). In-transit inventory levels increased 30.5 MG.
Based on the total inventory of 1,496 MG on July 11th and the 4-week avg. domestic demand, there were 38.1 days of supply, up 1.0 days from a week ago. Including the 4-week avg. of net exports, there were 33.3 days of supply, up 0.6 days from a week ago.