The carbon intensity (CI) of corn ethanol, the primary renewable fuel used in transportation, has been actively researched and quantified over the last three decades. Reliable estimates of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions for corn ethanol are important since these values help determine significant policy and market decisions on state, national, and international levels. We reviewed well-to-wheel
GHG life cycle analyses (LCAs) for corn ethanol and evaluated models, input data, and results for farming, fuel production, co-product credit, land use change (LUC), transport of feedstock and fuel, tailpipe, and denaturant. Compared to earlier analyses, recent LCAs for corn ethanol contain updates to modeling systems and data that reflect: (a) market-driven changes in corn production that lowered the intensity of fertilizer and fossil fuel use on farms; (b) more efficient use of natural gas and recent electric generation mix data for energy consumed at ethanol refineries, and (c) LUC analyses based on hybrid economic-biophysical models that account for land conversion, land productivity, and land intensification.
LCAs that include these latest developments yield a central best estimate of CI for corn ethanol of 51.4 gCO2e MJ−1 (range of 37.6–65.1 gCO2e MJ−1) which is 46% lower than the average CI for neat gasoline. The largest components of total CI are ethanol production (29.6 gCO2e MJ−1, 58% of total) and farming practices net of co-product credit (13.2 gCO2e MJ−1, 26%), while LUC is a minor contributor (3.9 gCO2e MJ−1, 7%). Market conditions that favor greater adoption of precision agriculture systems, retention of soil organic carbon, and demand for co-products from ethanol production may lower the CI of corn ethanol further. Continued refinement of models to account for co-products, conservation of soil carbon, and direct and indirect LUC is expected to produce ever more accurate estimates in the future.
Assessments of GHG intensity for corn ethanol have decreased by approximately 50% over the prior 30 years and converged on a current central estimate value of approximately 55 gCO2e MJ−1 which is over 40% lower on an energy equivalent basis than gasoline produced from crude oil. The decrease in GHG intensity is attributable to updates in modeling systems and input data that reflect market-driven changes in farming practices that lowered the use of fertilizer and fossil fuel on a per bushel basis, more efficient use of natural gas and more recent electric generation mix data for energy consumed at ethanol refineries, and market-based analyses of LUC. Current estimates from organizations in the United States are primarily based upon the GREET modeling system and show that direct emissions associated with production of corn and ethanol from corn, including co-product credits for animal feed and corn oil, account for approximately 80% of the total CI.
Two independent sets of data relating to farming and ethanol production that we examined corroborate the results from GREET. Compared to farming and ethanol production, estimates of CI associated with LUC are more variable among recent LCAs, however, the
most comprehensive evaluations indicate emissions are lower than 10 gCO2e MJ−1. Recent research indicates that market conditions that favor greater adoption of precision agriculture systems, retention of organic carbon in soil, and demand for co-products from ethanol production have the potential to reduce the CI of corn ethanol. Continued development and refinement of models to account for co-products, farming practices such as conservation of soil carbon, and direct and indirect LUC is expected to improve the accuracy of CI estimates in the future.