Last week, domestic ethanol demand was 14.1 BGY, up 5.4% compared to a week ago. The EIA-reported gas demand was up 5.4% from last week, at 135.0 BGY. The 4-week average ethanol and gas demand are 13.8 BGY and 132.4 BGY (-0.4% YoY).
Ethanol production was 17.5 BGY last week, up 2.2% versus the week before, and 0.5% more than the 4-week average, YoY. This was likely the record highest weekly ethanol production, discounting the production rate in early January that to us seems dubious and that was not supported by the January monthly data. Midwest production was up 2.6% (+8.2 MG) versus a week ago, and average production in the other regions was down 5.4% (-0.9 MG) mainly on the East and Gulf Coasts. Ethanol production capacity utilization of plants online this week was 96.4% overall, 98.2% in the Midwest, and 70.3% on average, elsewhere, excluding 1,236 MGY of capacity shutdown at 24 ethanol plants for other than maintenance. On an installed capacity basis, utilization was 90.3% overall, 95.6% in the Midwest and 41.9% in the other regions.
Exports were an estimated 47.4 MG last week based on 210 MG forecast for October. The EIA reported no ethanol imports last week.
Overall inventory was up 14.0 MG last week. EIA-counted stocks decreased 3.7 MG, and regional changes were: East ( +7 MG), Gulf (-6 MG) and West (-1 MG) Coasts and the Midwest (-4 MG). In-transit inventory levels increased 17.8 MG.
Based on the total inventory of 1,273 MG on October 30th and the 4-week avg. domestic demand, there were 33.1 days of supply, up 0.2 days from a week ago. Including the 4-week avg. of net exports, the days of supply were 28.1 days, up 0.1 from a week ago.
For the week ending Thursday, October 30th, the OPIS assessed weekly average D6 RIN price was 9 cpg less than the spot ethanol price in Chicago, as the chart on page 1 of the report indicates
Based on US Census data, ethanol exports in September were 221.1 MG, including an estimated 10.9 MG used to make ETBE for export with all 10.9 MG to Japan (assuming 60% of ETBE exports were derived from U.S. corn ethanol) and none The Netherlands or elsewhere. The major export destinations were Canada (94 MG), The Netherlands (19 MG), Vietnam (17 MG), Spain and India (14 MG, each), UK (13 MG), Columbia (12 MG), Mexico (6 MG each), and the and lesser amounts to other countries. The total to Europe (EU + UK) was 47 MG. YTD 2026, exports have totaled 1,940 MG, 16% more than YTD 2025.
Based on US Census data, 1.4 MG of fuel ethanol was imported in September, all from Canada. YTD through September, imports have totaled 16.6 MG, 77% more than YTD 2025. In September, there were no ethanol imports reported for industrial use from Brazil, likely for ETBE production and re-export to Japan, and 31.5 MG YTD, -59% versus YTD 2025.