Last week, domestic ethanol demand was 13.8 BGY, down 7.2% compared to a week ago. The EIA-reported gas demand was down 7.2% from last week, at 131.7 BGY. With last week being the week following into the long Memorial Day weekend, the large decrease is in line with typical W-o-W decreases seen after similar holiday weekends. The 4-week average demand is probably more representative of actual demand than the weekly demand for last week. The 4-week average ethanol and gas demand are 14.2 BGY and 135.6 BGY (+0.6% YoY).
Ethanol production was 17.0 BGY last week, up 1.7% versus the week before, and 4.4% more than the 4-week average in 2019. Midwest production was up 1.2% (+3.5 MG) versus a week ago, and average production in the other regions was up 13.0% (+2.1 MG) mainly in the Gulf Coast. Ethanol production capacity utilization of plants online this week was 93.9% overall, 94.8% in the Midwest, and 81.5% on average, elsewhere, excluding 1,236 MGY of capacity shutdown at 24 ethanol plants for other than maintenance. On an installed capacity basis, utilization was 87.9% overall, 92.3% in the Midwest and 48.4% in the other regions.
Exports were an estimated 47.4 MG last week based on 210 MG forecast for May. The EIA reported no ethanol imports last week.
Overall inventory was up 10.3 MG last week. EIA-counted stocks decreased 15.2 MG, and regional changes were: East (-17 MG), Gulf (+3 MG) and West (+4 MG) Coasts and the Midwest (-7 MG). In-transit inventory levels increased 25.5 MG.
Based on the total inventory of 1,306 MG on May 29th and the 4-week avg. domestic demand, there were 33.7 days of supply, up 0.2 days from a week ago. Including the 4-week avg. of net exports, the days of supply were 28.6 days, up 0.2 days from a week ago.