Last week, domestic ethanol demand was 15.0 BGY, up 9.3% compared to a week ago. The EIA-reported gas demand was up 9.3% from last week, at 144.9 BGY. The larger than usual increase in demand, week-on-week, was likely due to last week being the week before the long Memorial Day holiday weekend, with retail outlets stocking up before the weekend to avoid stocking out during the period of heavy holiday travel. The 4-week average ethanol and gas demand are 14.1 and 136.5 BGY (-1.5% YoY).
Ethanol production was 16.2 BGY last week, up 1.9% versus the week before, and 0.3% less than the 4-week average in 2019. Midwest production was up 1.9% (+5.6 MG) versus a week ago, and average production in the other regions was up 1.8% (+0.3 MG) mainly in the Gulf Coast. Capacity utilization of plants online was 90.6% overall, 91.5% in the Midwest, and 77.5% on average, elsewhere, excluding 1,258 MGY of capacity shutdown at 25 ethanol plants for other than maintenance (details on pg. 31). On an installed capacity basis, utilization was 84.6% overall, 89.0% in the Midwest and 45.7% in the other regions.
Exports were an estimated 38.4 MG last week based on 170 MG forecast for May. The EIA reported no ethanol imports last week.
Overall inventory was down 19.3 MG last week. EIA-counted stocks decreased 27.8 MG, and regional changes were: East (unchanged), Gulf (-18 MG) and West (-12 MG) Coasts and the Midwest (+4 MG). In-transit inventory levels increased 8.6 MG.
Based on the total inventory of 1,507 MG on May 23rd and the 4-week avg. domestic demand, there were 39.5 days of supply, down 0.7 days versus a week ago. Including the 4-week avg. of net exports, there were 34.5 days of supply, down 0.5 days versus a week ago.