Last week, domestic ethanol demand was 14.6 BGY, up 3.4% compared to a week ago. The EIA-reported gas demand was up 3.4% from last week, at 140.8 BGY. The 4-week average ethanol and gas demand are 13.8 and 133.2 BGY (+0.1% YoY).
Ethanol production was 16.3 BGY last week, down 2.8% versus the week before, and 4.3% more than the 4-week average in 2019. Midwest production was down 3.1% (-9.4 MG) versus a week ago, and average production in the other regions was up 1.9% (+0.3 MG), mainly in the Gulf and West Coast regions. Capacity utilization of plants online was 91.4 overall, 92.6% in the Midwest, and 73.7% on average, elsewhere, excluding 1,258 MGY of capacity shutdown at 25 ethanol plants for other than maintenance. On an installed capacity basis, utilization was 85.3% overall, 90.0% in the Midwest and 43.4% in the other regions.
Exports were an estimated 43.2 MG last week based on 190 MG forecast for March. The EIA reported no ethanol imports last week.
Overall inventory was down 14.1 MG last week. EIA-counted stocks increased 3.7 MG, and regional changes were: East (-2 MG), Gulf (-11 MG) and West (+4 MG) Coasts and the Midwest (+12 MG). In-transit inventory levels decreased 17.8 MG.
Based on the total inventory of 1,617 MG on Mar 7th and the 4-week avg. domestic demand, there were 43.1 days of supply, down 0.6 days versus a week ago. Including the 4-week avg. of net exports, there were 36.8 days of supply, down 0.4 days versus a week ago.
Based on US Census data, ethanol exports in January were 210.7 MG, including an estimated 11.0 MG used to make ETBE exported to Japan (assuming 60% of ETBE exports were derived from U.S. corn ethanol). The major export destinations were Canada (54 MG), India (35 MG), The Netherlands (21 MG), United Kingdom (14 MG), Columbia (15 MG), Philippines (11 MG), Brazil (10 MG), Cyprus (8 MG), Mexico and Nigeria (6 MG, each) and the and South Korea (4 MG). The total to Europe (EU + UK) was 38 MG.
Based on US Census data, 2.4 MG of fuel ethanol were imported in January, with 1.5 MG from Brazil to Savannah, GA and likely feedstock for the Soperton, GA ETJ plant and 0.9 MG from Canada. In 2024, imports totaled 16.3 MG, 53% less than YTD 2023. In January, there were 7.6 MG of ethanol imports reported for industrial use from Brazil that we understand is for ETBE production and then for re-export to Japan.