Last week, domestic ethanol demand was 13.2 BGY, up 0.3% compared to a week ago. The EIA-reported gas demand was up 0.3% from last week, at 127.7 BGY. The 4-week average ethanol and gas demand are 13.1 and 126.6 BGY (-0.2% YoY).
Ethanol production was 17.0 BGY last week, up 9.6% versus the week before, and 9.0% more than the 4-week average in 2019. Midwest production was up 9.8% (+27.6 MG) versus a week ago, and average production in the other regions was up 5.9% (+0.9 MG) mostly in the Gulf Coast region. Capacity utilization of plants online was 95.5% overall, 96.9% in the Midwest, and 73.7% on average, elsewhere, excluding 1,220 MGY of capacity shutdown at 24 ethanol plants for other than maintenance. On an installed capacity basis, utilization was 89.4% overall, 94.5% in the Midwest and 43.4% in the other regions.
Exports were an estimated 42.9 MG last week based on 190 MG forecast for January. The EIA reported no ethanol imports last week.
Overall inventory was up 26.9 MG last week. EIA-counted stocks increased 29.0 MG, and regional changes were: East (+18 MG), Gulf (+18 MG) and West (-1 MG) Coasts and the Midwest (-5 MG). In-transit inventory levels decreased 2.1 MG.
Based on the total inventory of 1,625 MG on Jan 31st and the 4-week avg. domestic demand, there were 44.5 days of supply, up 0.6 days versus a week ago. Including the 4-week avg. of net exports, there were 38.0 days of supply, up 0.5 days versus a week ago.
Based on US Census data, U.S. ethanol exports in December were 208.4 MG, including an estimated 14.5 MG used to make ETBE exported to Japan (assuming 60% of ETBE exports were derived from U.S. corn ethanol). The major export destinations were Canada (63 MG), The Netherlands (32 MG), United Kingdom (27 MG), India (14 MG), Columbia, Mexico and the Philippines (11 MG, each), Brazil (8 MG) and South Korea (5 MG). The total to Europe (EU + UK) was 63 MG. After exports to Brazil in April and May 2024, the first since May 2022, December’s exports to Brazil were notable.
For calendar 2024, U.S. ethanol exports totaled 2,046 MG, 29% more than in 2023, and eclipsing the record annual exports of 1.7 BG in 2018 that included 500 MG to Brazil and 50 MG to China.
Based on US Census data, 0.5 MG of fuel ethanol were imported in December, all from Canada. The 2024 imports have totaled 16.3 MG, 53% less than YTD 2023.