Last week, domestic ethanol demand was 13.1 BGY, down 6.9% compared to a week ago. The EIA-reported gas demand was down 6.9% from last week, at 125.0 BGY. The long holiday weekend the week before and winter weather are contributing to the recent volatile week-on-week demand fluctuations. The 4-week average ethanol and gas demand are 13.2 BGY and 126.7 BGY (unchanged YoY) and are probably more reflective of current demand.
Ethanol production was 14.7 BGY last week, down 14.2% versus the week before, and 6.3% less than the 4-week average in 2019. Midwest production was down 14.5% (-45.0 MG) versus a week ago, and average production in the other regions was down 8.5% (-1.5 MG), all in the Gulf Coast region. The large decreases are likely related to winter weather and high natural gas prices. While relatively large, the decrease in production this week is more credible than the large increase seen three weeks ago. Ethanol production capacity utilization of plants online this week was 81.4% overall, 82.0% in the Midwest, and 72.5% on average, elsewhere, excluding 1,258 MGY of capacity shutdown at 25 ethanol plants for other than maintenance. On an installed capacity basis, utilization was 76.1% overall, 79.7% in the Midwest and 43.0% in the other regions.
Exports were an estimated 42.9 MG last week based on 190 MG forecast for January. The EIA reported no ethanol imports last week.
Overall inventory was down 16.3 MG last week. EIA-counted stocks were decreased 11.1 MG, and regional changes were: East (-11 MG), Gulf (-14 MG) and West (+14 MG) Coasts and the Midwest (-1 MG). In-transit inventory levels decreased 5.2 MG.
Based on the total inventory of 1,504 MG on January 30th and the 4-week avg. domestic demand, there were 41.4 days of supply, up 0.5 days from a week ago. Including the 4-week avg. of net exports, there were 35.4 days of supply, up 0.4 days from a week ago.
Based on US Census data, ethanol exports in November were 222.1 MG, including an estimated 11.2 MG used to make ETBE for export with 10.4 MG to Japan (assuming 60% of ETBE exports were derived from U.S. corn ethanol) and 0.7 MG to Spain. The major export destinations were Canada (78 MG), India (32 MG), The Netherlands (44 MG), United Kingdom (17 MG), Columbia (13 MG), Nigeria and Peru (6 MG, each), Philippines (5 MG), South Korea (3 MG), Mexico (3 MG), and lesser amounts to other countries. The total to Europe (EU + UK) was 63 MG. Through November YTD, ethanol exports have totaled 2,097 MG, 14% more than YTD 2024.
Based on US Census data, 1.4 MG of fuel ethanol was imported in November, all from Canada Through November, imports have totaled 11.1 MG, 30% less than 2024 YTD.