Last week, domestic ethanol demand was 14.0 BGY, up 11.8% compared to a week ago. The EIA-reported gas demand was up 11.8% from last week, at 134.2 BGY. The long holiday weekend and winter weather both contributed to the volatile week-on-week demand fluctuations. The 4-week average ethanol and gas demand are 13.2 BGY and 126.7 BGY (down 0.4% YoY) and are more likely representative of current demand than the weekly snapshots.
Ethanol production was 17.1 BGY last week, down 0.4% versus the week before, and 8.3% more than the 4-week average in 2019. Midwest production was down 1.0% (-3.2 MG) versus a week ago, and average production in the other regions was up 11.3% (+1.8 MG), all in the Gulf Coast region. Ethanol production capacity utilization of plants online this week was 94.8% overall, 95.9% in the Midwest, and 79.2% on average, elsewhere, excluding 1,258 MGY of capacity shutdown at 25 ethanol plants for other than maintenance. On an installed capacity basis, utilization was 88.6% overall, 93.3% in the Midwest and 46.9% in the other regions.
Exports were an estimated 42.9 MG last week based on 190 MG forecast for January. The EIA reported no ethanol imports last week.
Overall inventory was up 11.6 MG last week. EIA-counted stocks were decreased 14.2 MG, and regional changes were: East (-6 MG), Gulf (-16 MG) and West (-2 MG) Coasts and the Midwest (+10 MG). In-transit inventory levels increased 25.8 MG.
Based on the total inventory of 1,504 MG on January 23rd and the 4-week avg. domestic demand, there were 40.4 days of supply, up 0.5days from a week ago. Including the 4-week avg. of net exports, there were 34.6 days of supply, up 0.4 days from a week ago.