Last week, domestic ethanol demand was 13.0 BGY, down 4.4% compared to a week ago. The EIA-reported gas demand was down 4.6% from last week, at 125.2 BGY. The 4-week average ethanol and gas demand are 13.8 BGY and 133.2 BGY (+0.5% YoY). (Note: Since this week contains one day (January 1st) the weekly average ethanol blend penetration is based on six days at the estimated 2025 blend level of 10.34% and one day of the forecast average blend level in 2026, namely 10.45% for an average during the week of 10.36%. For this reason, the week-on-week difference in ethanol and gasoline demand are different this week.)
Ethanol production was 16.8 BGY last week, down 2.0% versus the week before, and 2.7% more than the 4-week average in 2019. Midwest production was down 2.1% (-6.5 MG) versus a week ago, and average production in the other regions was unchanged. Capacity utilization of plants online was 93.7% overall, 94.9% in the Midwest, and 76.9% on average, elsewhere, excluding 1,258 MGY of capacity shutdown at 25 ethanol plants for other than maintenance. On an installed capacity basis, utilization was 87.6% overall, 92.3% in the Midwest and 45.5% in the other regions.
Exports were an estimated 41.0 MG last week based on 180 MG forecast for December and 190 MG forecast for January. The EIA reported no ethanol imports last week.
Overall inventory was up 29.1 MG last week. EIA-counted stocks were increased 29.7 MG, and regional changes were: East (+2 MG), Gulf (+6 MG) and West (-1 MG) Coasts and the Midwest (+21 MG). In-transit inventory levels decreased 0.6 MG.
Based on the total inventory of 1,423 MG on January 2nd and the 4-week avg. domestic demand, there were 36.8 days of supply, up 0.8 days from a week ago. Including the 4-week avg. of net exports, there were 31.9 days of supply, up 0.6 days from a week ago.