Last week, domestic ethanol demand was 14.5 BGY, up 6.0% compared to a week ago. The EIA-reported gas demand was up 6.0% from last week, at 140.4 BGY. The 4-week average ethanol and gas demand are 14.6 and 141.0 BGY (-1.1% YoY). The increase week-on-week was likely related, in part, to the additional inventory added by retail outlets ahead of the 4th of July long holiday weekend.
Ethanol production was 16.6 BGY last week, up 0.8% versus the week before, and 0.9% more than the 4-week average in 2019. Midwest production was up 1.4% (+4.1 MG) versus a week ago, and average production in the other regions was down 8.3% (-1.5 MG) mainly on the Gulf Coast. Capacity utilization of plants online was 93.1% overall, 94.3% in the Midwest, and 74.8% on average, elsewhere, excluding 1,258 MGY of capacity shutdown at 25 ethanol plants for other than maintenance. On an installed capacity basis, utilization was 87.0% overall, 91.7% in the Midwest and 44.1% in the other regions.
Exports were an estimated 38.8 MG last week based on 160 MG forecast for June and 180 MG forecast for July. The EIA reported no ethanol imports last week.
Overall inventory was down 2.2 MG last week. EIA-counted stocks decreased 6.6 MG, and regional changes were: East (-15 MG), Gulf (+2 MG) and West (+5 MG) Coasts and the Midwest (+2 MG). In-transit inventory levels increased 4.4 MG.
Based on the total inventory of 1,480 MG on July 4th and the 4-week avg. domestic demand, there were 37.1 days of supply, unchanged from a week ago. Including the 4-week avg. of net exports, there were 32.7 days of supply, also unchanged from a week ago.
Based on US Census data, ethanol exports in May were 197.8 MG, including an estimated 10.9 MG used to make ETBE for export to Japan (assuming 60% of ETBE exports were derived from U.S. corn ethanol). The major export destinations were Canada (61 MG), The Netherlands (32 MG), United Kingdom (31 MG), South Korea (14 MG), Columbia (13 MG), Philippines (12 MG), and lesser amounts to other countries. The total to Europe (EU + UK) was 64 MG. There were no exports to Brazil. Through May YTD, ethanol exports have totaled 954 MG, 10% more than YTD 2024.
Based on US Census data, 0.8 MG of fuel ethanol was imported in May, all from Canada Through May, imports have totaled 7.4 MG, 4% less than 2024 YTD. In May, there were 8.5 MG of ethanol imports reported for industrial use from Brazil, likely for ETBE production and re-export to Japan, and YTD there have been 36.4 MG, 7% less than YTD 2024.