Last week, domestic ethanol demand was 15.4 BGY, up 4.2% compared to a week ago. The EIA-reported gas demand was up 4.2% from last week, at 148.5 BGY. The higher gas demand last week may have been a result of consumers/retailers stocking up in response to the heightened tensions in the Middle East and potential for supply disruptions and price increases. The 4-week average ethanol and gas demand are 14.4 and 139.6 BGY (+0.2% YoY).
Ethanol production was 16.6 BGY last week, down 2.5% versus the week before, and 0.2% more than the 4-week average in 2019. Midwest production was down 2.8% (-8.5 MG) versus a week ago, and average production in the other regions was up 1.8% (+0.3 MG) mainly on the West Coast. Capacity utilization of plants online was 92.8% overall, 93.7% in the Midwest, and 78.9% on average, elsewhere, excluding 1,258 MGY of capacity shutdown at 25 ethanol plants for other than maintenance (details on pg. 31). On an installed capacity basis, utilization was 86.6% overall, 91.1% in the Midwest and 46.5% in the other regions.
Exports were an estimated 37.3 MG last week based on 160 MG forecast for June. The EIA reported no ethanol imports last week.
Overall inventory was down 18.0 MG last week. EIA-counted stocks increased 11.9 MG, and regional changes were: East (+9), Gulf (+7 MG) and West (+4) Coasts and the Midwest (-8 MG). In-transit inventory levels decreased 30.0 MG.
Based on the total inventory of 1,486 MG on June 20th and the 4-week avg. domestic demand, there were 38.0 days of supply, unchanged from a week ago. Including the 4-week avg. of net exports, there were 33.4 days of supply, also unchanged from a week ago.