Last week, domestic ethanol demand was 14.5 BGY, up 11.0% compared to a week ago. The EIA-reported gas demand was up 11.0% from last week, at 140.6 BGY. The larger than usual increase in demand, week-on-week, is typical as the weekly demand data returns to typical levels following the ups and downs bracketing the weeks around a long holiday weekend. The 4-week average ethanol and gas demand are 14.1 and 136.2 BGY (-2.5% YoY).
Ethanol production was 17.2 BGY last week, a weekly production record, and was up 1.4% versus the week before, and 4.4% more than the 4-week average in 2019. Midwest production was up 1.3% (+4.1 MG) versus a week ago, and average production in the other regions was up 1.7% (+0.3 MG) mainly in the Gulf Coast. Capacity utilization of plants online was 96.1% overall, 97.2% in the Midwest, and 80.3% on average, elsewhere, excluding 1,258 MGY of capacity shutdown at 25 ethanol plants for other than maintenance. On an installed capacity basis, utilization was 89.8% overall, 94.5% in the Midwest and 47.3% in the other regions.
Exports were an estimated 37.6 MG last week based on 170 MG forecast for May and 160 MG for June. The EIA reported no ethanol imports last week.
Overall inventory was up 8.9 MG last week. EIA-counted stocks decreased 29.7 MG, and regional changes were: East (-12), Gulf (-7 MG) and West (unchanged) Coasts and the Midwest (-11 MG). In-transit inventory levels increased 38.5 MG.
Based on the total inventory of 1,502 MG on Jun 6th and the 4-week avg. domestic demand, there were 38.6 days of supply, down 0.3 days versus a week ago. Including the 4-week avg. of net exports, there were 33.8 days of supply, down 0.2 days versus a week ago.
Based on US Census data, ethanol exports in April were 187.7 MG, including an estimated 13.5 MG used to make ETBE with 2.5 MG to The Netherlands and 11.0 MG exported to Japan (assuming 60% of ETBE exports were derived from U.S. corn ethanol). The major export destinations were Canada (55 MG), The Netherlands (33 MG), India (20 MG), South Korea (15 MG), United Kingdom (11MG), Columbia and Brazil (8 MG each), and lesser amounts to other countries. The total to Europe (EU + UK) was 51 MG. Through April YTD, ethanol exports have totaled 756 MG, 8% more than YTD 2024.
Based on US Census data, 0.9 MG of fuel ethanol was imported in April, all from Canada Through April, imports have totaled 6.6 MG, 19% more than 2024 YTD. The EPA EMTS D5 RIN generation in April showed no ethanol imports generating D5 RINs. The EIA weekly import data for April showed no MG imports. In April, there were 7.3 MG of ethanol imports reported for industrial use from Brazil, likely for ETBE production and re-export to Japan, and YTD there have been 27.9 MG, 12.5% less than YTD 2024.