Last week, domestic ethanol demand was 13.1 BGY, down 12.6% compared to a week ago. The EIA-reported gas demand was down 12.6% from last week, at 126.7 BGY. The larger than usual decrease in demand, week-on-week, is typical following a long holiday weekend, when leftover inventory on hand for the weekend reduced the amount of replenishment needed from the terminal, which is the boundary of the EIA S&D balance for gasoline. The 4-week average ethanol and gas demand are 13.9 and 134.7 BGY (-3.1% YoY), which is a better indicator of current demand due to the volatility around the long holiday weekend.
Ethanol production was 16.9 BGY last week, up 4.6% versus the week before, and 4.1% more than the 4-week average in 2019. Midwest production was up 4.8% (+14.1 MG) versus a week ago, and average production in the other regions was up 1.8% (+0.3 MG) mainly in the Gulf Coast. Capacity utilization of plants online was 94.8% overall, 95.9% in the Midwest, and 78.9% on average, elsewhere, excluding 1,258 MGY of capacity shutdown at 25 ethanol plants for other than maintenance. On an installed capacity basis, utilization was 88.6% overall, 93.2% in the Midwest and 46.5% in the other regions.
Exports were an estimated 38.4 MG last week based on 170 MG forecast for May. The EIA reported no ethanol imports last week.
Overall inventory was up 31.3 MG last week. EIA-counted stocks increased 6.7 MG, and regional changes were: East (+11), Gulf (-7 MG) and West (-5 MG) Coasts and the Midwest (+8 MG). In-transit inventory levels increased 24.6 MG.
Based on the total inventory of 1,493 MG on May 30th and the 4-week avg. domestic demand, there were 38.9 days of supply, up 0.5 days versus a week ago. Including the 4-week avg. of net exports, there were 34.0 days of supply, up 0.5 days versus a week ago.