Last week, domestic ethanol demand was 14.5 BGY, down 1.3% compared to a week ago. The EIA-reported gas demand was down 1.3% from last week, at 139.8 BGY. The 4-week average ethanol and gas demand are 14.3 and 138.7 BGY (-0.8% YoY).
Ethanol production was 16.5 BGY last week, up 0.5% versus the week before, and 4.4% more than the 4-week average in 2019. Midwest production was up 0.4% (+1.2 MG) versus a week ago, and average production in the other regions was up 1.9% (0.3 MG) , mainly on the Gulf Coast. Capacity utilization of plants online was 92.0% overall, 93.3% in the Midwest, and 73.1% on average, elsewhere, excluding 1,258 MGY of capacity shutdown at 25 ethanol plants for other than maintenance. On an installed capacity basis, utilization was 86.0% overall, 90.7% in the Midwest and 43.2% in the other regions.
Exports were an estimated 40.6 MG last week based on 180 MG forecast for August. The EIA reported no ethanol imports last week.
Overall inventory was down 5.7 MG last week. EIA-counted stocks increased 0.6 MG, and regional changes were: East (-2 MG), Gulf (-3 MG) and West (unchanged) Coasts and the Midwest (+4 MG). In-transit inventory levels decreased 6.4 MG.
Based on the total inventory of 1,317 MG on August 29th and the 4-week avg. domestic demand, there were 33.8 days of supply, down 0.1 days from a week ago. Including the 4-week avg. of net exports, there were 29.4 days of supply, down 0.1 days from a week ago.
Based on US Census data, ethanol exports in July were 180.1 MG, including an estimated 16.1 MG used to make ETBE for export with 14.5 MG to Japan (assuming 60% of ETBE exports were derived from U.S. corn ethanol) and 1.6 MG to the Netherlands. The major export destinations were Canada (67 MG), The Netherlands (29 MG), United Kingdom (21 MG), Columbia (10 MG), Philippines (10 MG), Brazil (9 MG), Peru (8 MG), and lesser amounts to other countries. The total to Europe (EU + UK) was 31 MG. Exports to Brazil during the C/S harvest are unusual and a sign of tightness in the Brazil ethanol S&D. Through July YTD, ethanol exports have totaled 1,318 MG, 12% more than YTD 2024.
Based on US Census data, 0.6 MG of fuel ethanol was imported in July, all from Canada Through July, imports have totaled 8.6 MG, 17% less than 2024 YTD. In July, there were 7.3 MG of ethanol imports reported for industrial use from Brazil, likely for ETBE production and re-export to Japan, and YTD there have been 43.7 MG, 18% less than YTD 2024.