Last week, domestic ethanol demand was 14.4 BGY, up 7.4% compared to a week ago. The EIA-reported gas demand was up 7.4% from last week, at 139.2 BGY. The 4-week average ethanol and gas demand are 13.7 BGY and 132.6 BGY (-1.1% YoY).
Ethanol production was 17.3 BGY last week, a new weekly production record, up 2.4% versus the week before, and 6.3% more than the 4-week average in 2019. Midwest production was up 3.1% (+9.4 MG) versus a week ago, and average production in the other regions was down 10.2% (-1.8 MG) mainly on the Gulf coast. Capacity utilization of plants online was 96.5% overall, 98.2% in the Midwest, and 71.5% on average, elsewhere, excluding 1,258 MGY of capacity shutdown at 25 ethanol plants for other than maintenance (details on pg. 30). On an installed capacity basis, utilization was 90.2% overall, 95.5% in the Midwest and 42.3% in the other regions.
Exports were an estimated 40.6 MG last week based on 180 MG forecast for December. The EIA reported no ethanol imports last week.
Overall inventory was up 11.9 MG last week. EIA-counted stocks were down 6.6 MG, and regional changes were: East (+3 MG), Gulf (-2 MG) and West (-1 MG) Coasts and the Midwest (-6 MG). In-transit inventory levels increased 18.5 MG.
Based on the total inventory of 1,401 MG on December 12th and the 4-week avg. domestic demand, there were 36.6 days of supply, up 0.1 days from a week ago. Including the 4-week avg. of net exports, there were 31.7 days of supply, unchanged from a week ago.
Based on US Census data, ethanol exports in September were 159.0 MG, including an estimated 11.0 MG used to make ETBE for export with 10.9 MG to Japan (assuming 60% of ETBE exports were derived from U.S. corn ethanol) and 0.1 MG to the Netherlands. The major export destinations were Canada (65 MG), The Netherlands (34 MG), Columbia (9 MG), India (8 MG), United Kingdom (3 MG), Peru and Nigeria (6 MG each), and lesser amounts to other countries. The total to Europe (EU + UK) was 39 MG. Through September YTD, ethanol exports have totaled 1,673 MG, 13% more than YTD 2024.
Based on US Census data, 0.4 MG of fuel ethanol was imported in September, all from Canada. Through September, imports have totaled 9.4 MG, 34% less than 2024 YTD.