Last week, domestic ethanol demand was 13.4 BGY, down 0.8% compared to a week ago. The EIA-reported gas demand was down 0.8% from last week, at 129.2 BGY. The 4-week average ethanol and gas demand are 13.6 and 131.8 BGY (-2.8% YoY).
Ethanol production was 15.7 BGY last week, down 4.0% versus the week before, and 2.1% more than the 4-week average in 2019. Midwest production was down 4.4% (-12.9 MG) versus a week ago, and average production in the other regions was up 3.8% (+0.6 MG), mainly in the Gulf and East Coast regions. Capacity utilization of plants online was 87.8% overall, 88.7% in the Midwest, and 75.1% on average, elsewhere, excluding 1,258 MGY of capacity shutdown at 25 ethanol plants for other than maintenance. On an installed capacity basis, utilization was 82.0% overall, 86.3% in the Midwest and 44.2% in the other regions.
Exports were an estimated 42.5 MG last week based on 190 MG forecast for March and 180 MG forecast for April. The EIA reported no ethanol imports last week.
Overall inventory was down 2.5 MG last week. EIA-counted stocks increased 17.7 MG, and regional changes were: East (+30 MG), Gulf (-31 MG) and West (+8 MG) Coasts and the Midwest (+11 MG). In-transit inventory levels decreased 20.2 MG.
Based on the total inventory of 1,589 MG on Apr 4th and the 4-week avg. domestic demand, there were 42.5 days of supply, up 1.0 days versus a week ago. Including the 4-week avg. of net exports, there were 36.5 days of supply, up 0.7 days versus a week ago.
Based on US Census data, ethanol exports in February were 148.1 MG, including an estimated 7.3 MG used to make ETBE exported to Japan (assuming 60% of ETBE exports were derived from U.S. corn ethanol) and 2.8 MG for ETBE destined for The Netherlands and assumed to be all from corn ethanol. The major export destinations were Canada (51 MG), The Netherlands (17 MG), Philippines (15 MG), India (13 MG), Mexico (11 MG), and the United Kingdom (8 MG). The total to Europe (EU + UK) was 29 MG. There were no ethanol exports to Brazil in February. Through February, ethanol exports have totaled 359 MG, 17% more than YTD 2024.
Based on US Census data, 0.7 MG of fuel ethanol were imported in February, all from Canada. Through February, imports have totaled 3.1 MG, 41% more than 2024 YTD. Also, in February, there were 6.0 MG of ethanol imports reported for industrial use from Brazil , likely for ETBE production and re-export to Japan.