Last week, domestic ethanol demand was 14.6 BGY, up 6.1% compared to a week ago. The EIA-reported gas demand was up 6.1% from last week, at 139.3 BGY. Volatile, week-on-week changes in gasoline demand is due to a combination of factors: the usual volatility around long holiday weekends, spring vacation effects, and the volatility of retail gas prices and news associated with the Iran war. The 4-week average ethanol and gas demand are 14.1 BGY and 135.1 BGY (+3.6% YoY) and may be more representative of actual demand.
Ethanol production was 17.2 BGY last week, up 0.4% versus the week before, and 11.7% more than the 4-week average in 2019. Midwest production was up 0.2% (+0.6 MG) versus a week ago, and average production in the other regions was up 3.9% (+0.6 MG), mainly in the USGC. Ethanol production capacity utilization of plants online this week was 95.2% overall, 96.8% in the Midwest, and 71.1% on average, elsewhere, excluding 1,236 MGY of capacity shutdown at 24 ethanol plants for other than maintenance. On an installed capacity basis, utilization was 89.1% overall, 94.3% in the Midwest and 42.2% in the other regions.
Exports were an estimated 51.3 MG last week based on 220 MG forecast for April. The EIA reported no ethanol imports last week.
Overall inventory was down 5.3 MG last week. EIA-counted stocks increased 27.1 MG, and regional changes were: East (+19 MG), Gulf (+20 MG) and West (-2 MG) Coasts and the Midwest (-9 MG). In-transit inventory levels decreased 32.4 MG.
Based on the total inventory of 1,428 MG on April 10th and the 4-week avg. domestic demand, there were 36.9 days of supply, down 0.4 days from a week ago. Including the 4-week avg. of net exports, the days of supply were 31.1 days, down 0.3 days from a week ago.