Last week, domestic ethanol demand was 13.4 BGY, down 5.2% compared to a week ago. The EIA-reported gas demand was down 5.2% from last week, at 129.6 BGY. Demand the past week was likely influenced by the long holiday weekend. The 4-week average ethanol and gas demand are 13.8 BGY and 133.6 BGY (-3.2% YoY).
Ethanol production was 16.5 BGY last week, up 0.3% versus the week before, and 12.0% more than the 4-week average in 2019. Midwest production was down 0.1% (-0.3 MG) versus a week ago, and average production in the other regions was up 8.7% (+1.2 MG). Capacity utilization of plants online was 91.7% overall, 93.3% in the Midwest, and 67.4% on average, elsewhere, excluding 1,258 MGY of capacity shutdown at 25 ethanol plants for other than maintenance. On an installed capacity basis, utilization was 85.7% overall, 90.7% in the Midwest and 39.9% in the other regions.
Exports were an estimated 40.6 MG last week based on 180 MG forecast for October. The EIA reported no ethanol imports last week.
Overall inventory was up 14.1 MG last week. EIA-counted stocks decreased 3.9 MG, and regional changes were: East (+11 MG), Gulf (-2 MG) and West (-9 MG) Coasts and the Midwest (-4 MG). In-transit inventory levels increased 17.9 MG.
Based on the total inventory of 1,291 MG on October 10th and the 4-week avg. domestic demand, there were 33.9 days of supply, up 0.3 days from a week ago. Including the 4-week avg. of net exports, there were 29.5 days of supply, up 0.2 days from a week ago.