Last week, domestic ethanol demand was 13.5 BGY, down 6.7% compared to a week ago. The EIA-reported gas demand was down 6.7% from last week, at 130.4 BGY. A large week-on-week decrease is typical the week following a long holiday weekend as retail outlets use the reserve volume not sold during the holiday weekend. The 4-week average ethanol and gas demand are 14.1 and 136.8 BGY (-0.6% YoY).
Ethanol production was 16.9 BGY last week, up 2.8% versus the week before, and 7.9% more than the 4-week average in 2019. Midwest production was up 2.5% (+7.6 MG) versus a week ago, and average production in the other regions was up 7.4% (1.2 MG), with the increase seen in all regions except the West Coast where utilization was unchanged. Capacity utilization of plants online was 94.6% overall, 95.6% in the Midwest, and 78.5% on average, elsewhere, excluding 1,258 MGY of capacity shutdown at 25 ethanol plants for other than maintenance. On an installed capacity basis, utilization was 88.4% overall, 93.0% in the Midwest and 46.4% in the other regions.
Exports were an estimated 40.1 MG last week based on 180 MG forecast for August and 170 MG forecast for September. The EIA reported no ethanol imports last week.
Overall inventory was up 22.1 MG last week. EIA-counted stocks increased 11.5 MG, and regional changes were: East (-4 MG), Gulf (-14 MG) and West (+4 MG) Coasts and the Midwest (+26 MG). In-transit inventory levels increased 10.7 MG.
Based on the total inventory of 1,339 MG on September 5th and the 4-week avg. domestic demand, there were 34.3 days of supply, up 0.5 days from a week ago. Including the 4-week avg. of net exports, there were 29.8 days of supply, up 0.4 days from a week ago.