Last week, domestic ethanol demand was 14.3 BGY, down 1.2% compared to a week ago. The EIA-reported gas demand was down 1.3% from last week, at 138.6 BGY. The 4-week average ethanol and gas demand are 14.1 and 136.6 BGY (-2.2% YoY).
Ethanol production was 16.6 BGY last week, down 1.4% versus the week before, and 4.0% more than the 4-week average in 2019. Midwest production was down 1.8% (-5.6 MG) versus a week ago, and average production in the other regions was up 7.1% (+1.2 MG) on the East and West Coasts. Capacity utilization of plants online was 92.5% overall, 93.3% in the Midwest, and 81.3% on average, elsewhere, excluding 1,258 MGY of capacity shutdown at 25 ethanol plants for other than maintenance (details on pg. 30). On an installed capacity basis, utilization was 86.4% overall, 90.7% in the Midwest and 48.0% in the other regions.
Exports were an estimated 40.6 MG last week based on 180 MG forecast for July. The EIA reported no ethanol imports last week.
Overall inventory was down 1.6 MG last week. EIA-counted stocks decreased 40.3 MG, and regional changes were: East (-7 MG), Gulf (-16 MG) and West (+7 MG) Coasts and the Midwest (-25 MG). In-transit inventory levels increased 38.7 MG.
Based on the total inventory of 1,413 MG on August 1st and the 4-week avg. domestic demand, there were 36.6 days of supply, up 0.2 days from a week ago. Including the 4-week avg. of net exports, there were 31.8 days of supply, up 0.1 days from a week ago.
Based on US Census data, ethanol exports in June were 184.2 MG, including an estimated 11.1 MG used to make ETBE for export to Japan (assuming 60% of ETBE exports were derived from U.S. corn ethanol). The major export destinations were Canada (65 MG), India (24 MG), The Netherlands (18 MG), South Korea (13 MG), Philippines (12 MG), United Kingdom and Columbia (11 MG each), and lesser amounts to other countries. The total to Europe (EU + UK) was 31 MG. There were no exports to Brazil. Through June YTD, ethanol exports have totaled 1,138 MG, 11% more than YTD 2024.
Based on US Census data, 0.6 MG of fuel ethanol was imported in June, all from Canada Through June, imports have totaled 8.0 MG, 11% less than 2024 YTD. In June, there were no ethanol imports reported for industrial use from Brazil, which would have been likely for ETBE production and re-export to Japan, and YTD there have been 36.4 MG, 22% less than YTD 2024.