Last week, domestic ethanol demand was 12.8 BGY, down 1.2% compared to a week ago. The EIA-reported gas demand was down 1.2% from last week, at 126.6 BGY. The 4-week average ethanol and gas demand are 12.9 and 127.5 BGY and may be a better indication of current demand than the weekly snapshot due weekly data volatility.
Ethanol production was 16.3 BGY last week, down 1.5% versus the week before, and 0.5% more than the 4-week average in 2019. Midwest production was down 1.3% (-3.8 MG) versus a week ago, and average production in the other regions was down 4.8% (-0.9 MG). Capacity utilization of plants online was 94.2% overall, 94.9% in the Midwest, and 82.7% on average, elsewhere, excluding 1,373 MGY of capacity shutdown at 28 ethanol plants for other than maintenance. On an installed capacity basis, utilization was 88.1% overall, 92.4% in the Midwest and 49.8% in the other regions.
Exports were an estimated 31.6 MG last week based on 140 MG forecast for December. The EIA reported no ethanol imports last week.
Overall inventory was up 30.7 MG last week. EIA-counted stocks increased 48.4 MG, and regional changes were: East (+20 MG), Gulf (+4 MG) and West (+16 MG) Coasts and the Midwest (+9 MG). In-transit inventory decreased 17.7 MG.
Based on the total inventory of 1,797 MG on December 9th and the 4-week avg. domestic demand, there were 49.5 days of supply, up 1.6 days versus a week ago. Including the 4-week avg. of net exports, there were 44.7 days of supply, up 1.2 days versus a week ago.
