Last week, domestic ethanol demand was 13.2 BGY, down 1.2% compared to a week ago. The EIA-reported gas demand was down 1.8% from last week, at 127.6 BGY. The 4-week average ethanol and gas demand are 13.4 and 130.2 BGY (+0.8% YoY). Note: The assumed ethanol penetration for 2025 is 10.34%, up from the 10.25% assumed throughout 2024.
Ethanol production was 16.8 BGY last week, down 0.6% versus the week before, and 6.2% more than the 4-week average in 2019. Midwest production was down 0.2% (-0.6 MG) versus a week ago, and average production in the other regions was down 8.5% (-1.5 MG) all in the Gulf Coast region. Capacity utilization of plants online was 93.0% overall, 94.7% in the Midwest, and 69.4% on average, elsewhere, excluding 1,027 MGY of capacity shutdown at 22 ethanol plants for other than maintenance (details on pg. 31). On an installed capacity basis, utilization was 88.0% overall, 92.9% in the Midwest and 43.4% in the other regions.
Exports were an estimated 42.9 MG last week based on 190 MG forecast for January. The EIA reported no ethanol imports last week.
Overall inventory was up 22.0 MG last week. EIA-counted stocks increased 36.1 MG, and regional changes were: East (+31 MG), Gulf (+4 MG) and West (+8 MG) Coasts and the Midwest (-9 MG). In-transit inventory levels decreased 14.2 MG.
Based on the total inventory of 1,695 MG on Jan 10th and the 4-week avg. domestic demand, there were 45.3 days of supply, up 1.3 days versus a week ago. Including the 4-week avg. of net exports, there were 39.0 days of supply, up 1.0 days versus a week ago.